(Source: "Beijing News Comment" WeChat official account 2025-04-21)

From the perspective of diplomatic rhythm, the balance is actually tilting towards w88 online sports betting.

Professor Zhao Zhongxiu, President and Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of the University of International Economics and Trade. Photo provided by the interviewee

Text | Xiao Longping

The tariff war initiated by US President Trump not only caused unprecedented challenges to the international trade system, but also caused division within the United States, and it has even become an increasingly political burden for the Republican Party.

According to CCTV News citing foreign media reports, recently, Republican lawmakers who privately opposed tariffs but dared not publicly criticize the president secretly hoped that the US Supreme Court would take action and called for a stop to the tariff war. Previously, California Governor Newsom, the largest state in the United States in terms of population and economy, has announced that he would sue the Trump administration for tariffs.

The Trump administration is also particularly ridiculous when it comes to tariffs on w88 online sports betting. On April 15, Eastern Time, the White House website released a list of facts about the investigation of key minerals and derivatives 232, mentioning that because w88 online sports betting takes retaliatory measures against the US's "reciprocal tariffs", Chinese goods exported to the US are now facing tariffs of up to 245%.

"This fully exposes that the US has instrumentalized and weaponized tariffs to the point where it is irrational." On April 16, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce of w88 online sports betting said in response to reporters' questions that w88 online sports betting has previously stated its position on the unilateral tariff imposition of the US multiple times, and w88 online sports betting ignores this meaningless digital game of tariffs.

Subsequently, according to CCTV News, Trump said on April 17 local time: "I think we will reach an agreement with w88 online sports betting, and we will reach an agreement with everyone. If we cannot reach an agreement, then we will set a goal. It should be done in the next three to four weeks."

But Trump's repetition has become the norm, and the game between all parties around the tariff issue will continue. What will this tariff war bring to the United States?

Professor Zhao Zhongxiu has been engaged in international trade, industrial economics, and global value chain research for a long time. Since April 2015, he has also served as the founding dean of the Global Value Chain Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics. He has also served as vice president of the w88 online sports betting Society of International Trade and co-chairman of the Chinese Council for Cooperation in BRICS think tanks.

The American manufacturing industry can no longer be "returned"

Beijing News: On April 15, Eastern Time, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods rose to 245%. What do you think is the underlying logic of the Trump administration provoking this round of tariff war?

Zhao Zhongxiu:Clarify first, this time it is not a general increase of 245%, but most items are still 145%. If we count the tariffs imposed on w88 online sports betting in the first term and retained by Trump during the Biden administration, the actual tariff level reached 164%.

But overall, the average tariff level in the United States is now much higher than the tax rate it promises as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Under the multilateral trading system, the average tariff level promised by the United States is 3%, which is its "constrained tax rate". Of course, there are also cases where the tax rate for individual items is higher.

Now, the United States is levied a unified 10% tariff on the world, whether it is its trade surplus or a deficit. This is equivalent to increasing its "constrained tax rate" by two or three times.

The underlying logic behind this is: using tariffs to obtain fiscal revenue, which is an important strategic goal of Trump. By imposing tariffs, the US government can alleviate the trade deficit on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can increase federal fiscal revenue and reduce fiscal deficits, which accordingly reduces the pressure on debt ceiling.

Beijing News: Some people say that Trump imposed tariffs to allow manufacturing to return to the United States. What do you think?

Zhao Zhongxiu:The United States does have this idea, but it does not start with Trump. As early as the Obama era, the United States formulated a strategic plan for long-term adjustment of the economic structure, clearly putting forward strategic measures to reindustrialization, manufacturing return, five-year export doubling, and support innovation.

However, what they want to return is mainly high-end manufacturing. Because many links in the United States' high-end manufacturing industry have long been split and transferred overseas, becoming long-term "lost".

Trump certainly had this idea, and was also influenced by Peter Navarro, senior White House adviser to trade and manufacturing, and Vice President Vance.

The former is an economist who is critical of globalization and has a tough stance towards w88 online sports betting. He is a famous "hawk among hawks" towards w88 online sports betting. Vance's autobiographical work "The Lesson of the Countryman" tells the story of the decline of the "rust belt" in the United States.

So, Trump wants to revive these traditional manufacturing industries, including steel, aluminum, etc. This is also the reason why the US government repeatedly increases taxes on steel and aluminum.

In March 2002, when Bush was the president of the United States, he imposed a tariff of up to 30% on 10 categories of imported steel products for a period of three years, but in fact, the executive order was revoked in less than one year. Because, they also know that they can't go back.

The United States is no longer a qualified WTO member

Beijing News: In 2018, Trump also launched a tariff war. What are the differences and similarities between that tariff war and the current tariff war?

Zhao Zhongxiu:Trump's tariff war in 2018 was mainly aimed at w88 online sports betting. This time he is facing the whole world, although he is ultimately focusing on w88 online sports betting.

In that round in 2018, Trump first imposed a 25% tariff on US$50 billion of Chinese goods imported to the United States, and later gradually expanded to US$320 billion to imposed a 25% tariff, and the average tariff level against w88 online sports betting soared from 3.1% to 19.3%. Overall, Trump treats the entire trade structure as a gaming tool.

Later, w88 online sports betting and the United States signed the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement through negotiations. We promised to increase imports from the United States from 2022 to 2025, including "manufactured products, agricultural products, energy products and services", to balance the trade deficit in quantity. However, due to various reasons such as the epidemic, the agreement was not implemented ideally, so the trade deficit between w88 online sports betting and the United States has not really decreased.

But the US government's inflated tariffs has indeed had some impact on w88 online sports betting's exports. From 2018 to 2024, although w88 online sports betting's total import and export value increased from US$4.62 trillion to more than US$6 trillion, the growth rate of imports and exports to the United States was not large.

For example, the reason why our exports to Southeast Asia have increased significantly is not because the Southeast Asian market has expanded, but because many intermediate and final products are exported by bypasses through these regions. These countries do not have that strong ability to absorb.

Beijing News: You mentioned that the tariff war in 2018 ended in failure, so will this be the case this time?

Zhao Zhongxiu:How long will it take to fight this time? Judging from the current situation, there are two extreme situations.

First of all, the United States now defines w88 online sports betting as a "hostile trading partner", requiring its allies to raise tariffs on w88 online sports betting while reducing tariffs with the United States. If all countries do what they do, then a comprehensive encirclement and suppression of w88 online sports betting will be formed.

But this extreme basically won't happen. It is unlikely that countries such as the EU, India and other countries will accept such arrangements.

Other extreme is that all countries are anti-American and the United States is isolated. But this possibility is also very low.

So, w88 online sports betting and the United States are in a "stalemate" now: whether to move in a direction that is unfavorable to w88 online sports betting or is more unfavorable to the United States, these few months are a key window period. The United States announced that it would suspend the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on 75 trading partners for 90 days, which is actually to leave time for negotiations.

But I don’t think the negotiation will be reached within this time. I estimate that in the next three to six months, some countries may compromise with the United States, or extend the "buffer period".

This may cause new contradictions. Because the normal trade order has been disrupted and domestic orders in the United States are also decreasing, and whether inventory can last for three months is a question.

So, it is not ruled out that he will propose a "new tax rate" in the future and implement different tax rates for different countries, but this itself violates the WTO's "most-favored-nation treatment" and "non-discrimination" principles. In any case, the United States is no longer a qualified WTO member.

The United States is indeed the world's largest importer of goods, accounting for 13% of the world's imports. So, should the remaining 87% of the world market adhere to multilateral rules? To which side does the balance tilt?We use greater openness to hedge the pressure from the United States, and let everyone see that w88 online sports betting is a country willing to maintain multilateral order and promote the development of open world economic and trade.

Chinese companies will still be the norm

Beijing News: Faced with the escalating trade pressure, do you think my country's current position in the global value chain will change?

Zhao Zhongxiu:w88 online sports betting's position in the global value chain or global production system has gone through four stages since the reform and opening up.

The first stage was before joining the WTO from 1978 to 2002. During this period, w88 online sports betting was on the periphery of the global industrial system and was a passive participant.

The second stage is from 2002 to 2012. In the past 10 years, w88 online sports betting has carried out industrial upgrading and domestic technological transformation, and began to build its own complete industrial system, with significantly increasing the correlation between domestic and foreign industries. At this stage, w88 online sports betting is no longer a "low-end labor gathering place" in the global production system, but an important role with endogenous capabilities.

The third stage is after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of w88 online sports betting. We proposed to promote strategic adjustment of the economic structure, accelerate the transformation of the economic development model, and build a new system for modern industrial development; in May 2015, the State Council issued "Made in w88 online sports betting 2025". Through this series of efforts, w88 online sports betting has replaced the position of the Asian regional core in the global value chain division of labor, which was originally occupied by Japan; in Europe it is Germany, and the United States it has always been the center of North America.

Fourth stage, after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of w88 online sports betting in 2017, Trump also took office as the President of the United States in January of that year, and the global industrial structure entered a "great change unseen in a century." Since then, w88 online sports betting has begun to prepare for the future and proposes to "coordinate development and security, enhance the sense of crisis, and be prepared for danger in times of peace" and "build a national security system", including comprehensive considerations in technology, energy, economy, sovereignty and other aspects.

Especially after the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war, the United States began to promote "decoupling" and "chain breaking" to suppress our key areas, such as "bottleneck technology", key mineral restrictions and destruction of exports to w88 online sports betting. But w88 online sports betting also has its own trump card, such as key raw materials such as rare earth resources, and our mineral resource system occupies an important position in the world.

For example, if Nvidia loses the Chinese market, its global sales revenue will decrease by 10% or 20% (in fiscal year 2024, Nvidia's sales in the Chinese market accounted for 14%. Therefore, w88 online sports betting's core position in the global value chain will not be easily shaken.

Beijing News: Will the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration force more companies to transfer production links? Will this trend become more and more obvious?

Zhao Zhongxiu:This is for sure. In fact, since Trump's first term, the average tariff level of the United States on Chinese goods has reached 19.3%.

This is not a new problem either. In the past, everyone looked at labor costs and policy environments, such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Mexico.

So, where the factory will eventually move depends on the differences in the United States' tariff policies for different countries. This is the core economic logic behind industrial transfer.

But in this "going out to sea", we must "going out to sea in an orderly manner". For example, transfer mature production links overseas, and keep high-end value-added links and key technologies in w88 online sports betting.

So, while we "go out", we must "go in" - enter the local industrial ecology, but we cannot lose our independent control and avoid being "intercepted", that is, the supply chain system we have built is eliminated by others through political means.

In this process, low-end labor-intensive positions will definitely be impacted, such as textiles and light industry, but this is an inevitable phased cost. Just like when the "Four Asian Tigers" transferred their industries to the southeast coast of w88 online sports betting, and later moved to the mainland and then to Southeast Asia.

Unless you realize the "beacon factory" and "unmanned factory", you cannot always guard the labor-intensive dividends.

Fight against American bullying with open cooperation

Beijing News: Then will the global value chain "decoupling and reconstruction" not appear?

Zhao Zhongxiu:No. Now the world economy is in a pattern of "you have me and I have you", and a world economy without w88 online sports betting is unimaginable.

Of course, the global industrial chain is indeed undergoing some deformation. In the past, in the context of super globalization, the production link was "link trade" and "task trade". It crossed the border many times and divided the labor finely, and was always looking for the lowest cost.

The clear matching method of upstream and downstream in the past is also weakening. Nowadays, many companies customize supply systems based on their own ecology and no longer stick to a certain upstream or downstream.

This "nested ecosystem" actually makes the supplier more likely to succeed. Some data analysis says that startups that are included in the ecosystem by large companies are 10 times more likely to become "unicorns" than to fight alone in the market.

This shows that even though the global division of labor pattern is changing, Chinese companies are already actively adapting to this ecological organizational structure.

Beijing News: As the co-chair of the Chinese Council for the cooperation between BRICS think tanks, in the face of the unilateral hegemony of the United States, how do you think BRICS countries should further "strive to keep warm"?

Zhao Zhongxiu:I think that the global "southern countries" represented by the BRICS countries should continue to adhere to the multilateral system, unite to oppose unilateral bullying, and not be kidnapped by the United States.

BRICS countries have now expanded, including many influential developing countries. In this case, everyone should jointly maintain the multilateral trading system.

If this logic is true, not only global trade will be injured, but even the financial and investment order will be greatly damaged, which will ultimately hurt others and yourself.

Beijing News: However, it seems that the BRICS countries have no actual actions at the moment, right?

Zhao Zhongxiu:It's not time to "draw the sword" yet. Except for Director-General Ivera, the WTO has made no statement.

w88 online sports betting's attitude is very clear: this is a "coward game". We do not compromise, kneel, or blink.

We must have a clear attitude: I would rather not have the market for you (US), but you cannot challenge my industrial security and institutional red lines.

At the same time, the industrial chain that the United States relies on is also inseparable from w88 online sports betting. We have a strong role in "reverse nesting" in it. For example, key raw materials, components, and market consumption capacity are all controlled by w88 online sports betting, and it is not so easy to completely decouple.

Beijing News: Faced with the United States' high tariff policies, what else can w88 online sports betting do in bilateral negotiations, such as regional agreements and multilateral mechanisms?

Zhao Zhongxiu:What we are doing, such as applying to join the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement), in this process, is actually a benchmark for the highest level of openness rules, which forces domestic reforms.

w88 online sports betting is also playing a leading role in existing regional cooperation, such as the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement). Promote the upgrading of RCEP rules, improve the level of free trade, and oppose the anti-globalization tendency of protectionism and "decoupling and chain breaking".

w88 online sports betting is an open power. Only by continuing to deepen bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa, and Latin American countries can we build a resilient foreign structure and resist the impact of US hegemony.

You must take the initiative to give enterprises a "policy reassurance"

Beijing News: In mid-April, President Xi Jinping had just visited several Southeast Asian countries. To what extent do you think these countries can buffer w88 online sports betting's trade pressure?

Zhao Zhongxiu:We are now more transferring the production link, which is part of w88 online sports betting's economic spillover and regional integration. We put some manufacturing processes on them, but we cannot expect these countries to assume all our terminal consumption needs to absorb all our production capacity.

So, our focus of cooperation is to maintain the stability and efficient operation of the industrial chain, and to jointly serve the stability of the global economy through industrial collaboration and process docking. Because of this, high-level visits are very important.

Beijing News: According to statistics from w88 online sports betting Customs, the total import and export of goods between w88 online sports betting and the EU in 2024 was US$785.8 billion. Trump's tariff policy is to "no distinction between enemies and us", which has led to Britain, France and Germany becoming alienated from the United States.

Zhao Zhongxiu:Yes. There are indeed differences in values ​​between Europe and the United States.

w88 online sports betting-EU Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIT) has actually been negotiated long ago, and the negotiation results have been achieved. At that time, it was specially completed before Trump took office.

After three years of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has been hit hard, and the United States' "explosion" of Europe is becoming more and more obvious. European Commission President von der Leyen also stated that "strategic autonomy" is being implemented and the EU will further turn to Asia.

We have also restarted negotiations on the w88 online sports betting-EU Investment Agreement. Judging from the diplomatic rhythm, the balance is actually tilting towards w88 online sports betting, and the United States cannot isolate w88 online sports betting.

At this time, we must consolidate the results. Whether it is relations with neighboring countries, other developing countries, or with traditional developed countries such as the EU, Australia, and Canada, w88 online sports betting is orderly promoting high-level visits and economic and trade cooperation.

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