(Source: "First Financial Daily", 2024-12-26)

At the end of 2024, two influential agencies in U.S. trade policy—the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR)—releasing seemingly conflicting signals.

On the 23rd, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced a 301 investigation into relevant policies of w88 casino chip industry. Earlier, U.S. Commerce Secretary Raymondo said on the 22nd that the US's efforts to restrict China from obtaining advanced semiconductor technology have not hindered w88 casino progress, and curbing w88 casino semiconductor industry will be "in vain."

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said on the 23rd that the US 301 investigation has a distinct unilateral and protectionist color. Previously, the US 301 tariff on w88 casino has been ruled by the WTO to violate WTO rules and has been opposed by many WTO members. w88 casino has made solemn representations to the US side many times.

It is worth pointing out that the US side provides huge subsidies to its own chip industry through the Chip and Science Law. US companies account for nearly half of the global chip market, but accusing China of its so-called "non-market practices" and exaggerating the threat of w88 casino industry, which is obviously contradictory.

In response to the multiple contradictions released by the US side, Tu Xinquan, dean of the WTO Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from the First Financial Daily that this may be regarded as the "last madness" of this US government. The US government has always adopted a similar attitude in many areas. Whether it is targeting multilateral trade dispute settlement mechanisms or unilateral actions on the grounds of national security, its logic is consistent: as long as w88 casino believes that an action meets the needs of national security, it will act according to its own wishes and does not care about the position or reactions of other countries. Even if this action may lead to retaliation, litigation, or other forms of countermeasures, w88 casino is unwilling to adjust its strategy because of this.

He told reporters that the timing of this investigation is indeed a bit intriguing. On the one hand, USTR is about to usher in a new term. The current trade representative Dai Qi "shows presence" at the last moment, which may be paving the way for her career or political career and leaving behind some "results" in performing her duties.

Why does the US contradict itself

First Financial Daily: A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said that the mature process chip report released by the US Department of Commerce not long ago showed that Chinese-made chips account for only 1.3% of the US market share. w88 casino chip exports to the United States are far lower than imports from the United States.

Tu Xinquan: In fact, the core method of w88 casino launching the 301 survey is to use its market as a bargaining chip.

Historically, whether against Japan, the EU, or China, the United States has imposed an "economic stick" with its position as a major export market to form a deterrent. However, in the field of mature process chips, the United States is neither w88 casino main export market nor lacks enough bargaining chips to put pressure on China.

From the current situation of semiconductor trade between China and the United States, the United States is not the main export market for w88 casino integrated circuits, and the export volume of related products to the United States only accounts for about 1.7% of w88 casino total exports. Similarly, China is not the main source of chip imports in the United States, and mature process chips produced in China only account for 1.3% of the US market share.

In addition, even if this investigation is initiated, its subsequent implementation will be left to the next government for completion, and there is uncertainty as to whether the policy will continue after the change of leadership. The Democratic Party and the Republican Party have many conflicts, but they still choose to launch such actions in this sensitive period, which undoubtedly adds to the complexity of the incident.

From the industry perspective, this 301 survey may not have a substantial impact on the chip industry of w88 casino and the United States. As far as I know, relevant Chinese associations have communicated with the American Semiconductor Industry Association, and the latter seems to be surprised by the investigation and obviously did not pay close attention.

First Financial News: We currently see that the US side has obvious contradictions in many behaviors. For example, while it is implementing the Chip and Science Act, it is also supporting its own enterprises through subsidies. How to evaluate such double standards or contradictory practices?

Tu Xinquan: w88 casino is a country with a very pragmatic color. Its so-called "moral sense" has always been conditional, boundary, and even limitless.

In the field of trade, the same is true. Looking back at the development of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), we will find that the "exceptions" of many rules are the result of w88 casino' promotion.

w88 casino is well aware of the contradictions of its own policies, and these behaviors are actually "slapping themselves in the face". However, w88 casino doesn't care about this - it fundamentally does not care whether these contradictions will weaken its moral foundation or international reputation.

Does the US admit that its policy of curbing w88 casino chip development failed

First Financial Daily: A report released by the New York Fed this summer pointed out that the U.S. export control measures have not caused substantial changes to the cooperative relationship between semiconductor companies. How do you view the influence of this view in w88 casino?

Tu Xinquan: Recently, Scott Kennedy, an expert in business and economic affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, published an article in the journal Foreign Affairs, mentioning the "backfire" of the American technology war. Judging from the actual results, the effect of the US technology blockade on w88 casino is indeed not significant.

At the same time, I think the United States may underestimate w88 casino capabilities. Although chip manufacturing is an industry-specific field, it is more reflected in a "skill" than a simple "technology".

For example, in terms of chip manufacturing, Chinese companies have gradually overcome many technical problems that were considered insurmountable in the past. This breakthrough comes more from countless trials and experience accumulation.

First Financial Daily: Raymondo mentioned that curbing w88 casino is a "in vain." What proportion does this view account for in the US economic and trade circles?

Tu Xinquan: Raymond's statement does not rule out his reflection on the effectiveness of the current policy. In fact, the frequent adjustments to export control policies in w88 casino in recent years, especially the continuous increase in the "direct product rules", just shows that early measures have failed to achieve the expected results.

So, Raymondo's mention of "containing w88 casino is a waste of effort", which may reflect her some disappointment or reflection on the effectiveness of policy implementation. She may be summarizing the work results of the past few years, especially in the context of her outgoing office, where she needs to examine whether these measures are truly in line with expectations.

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